While the spiral and the Trump advance ticket continues consistently. What you've seen in 2016 and 2020 is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout, and to create dissension and conflict [00:00:15] with Republican voters. I'm telling you, every single person who's watching this, the Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot. We're going to win this race. We just have to run through the finish line. Was that a conspiracy theory? [00:00:30] Was that cope or was there some merit to that argument? JD Vance, of course, is taking note of the general election polling, which shows that the Democratic candidates, Kamala Harris, of course, has increased her lead on Donald Trump. [00:00:47] Clearly, he doesn't like it, but he is dismissing the polling. - Hey, don't scroll away. - Come back, come back. Because before the video continues, we just want to urge you to lend your support to TYT. You power our honest reporting. You do it at tight.com/team and we love you for it. [00:01:03] Now first let's talk about Vance, who you know is alleging that the media is using fake polls on purpose in order to drive down the vote of Republicans. And, if you take a look at the polls, it is true Kamala Harris, according [00:01:19] to those polls, has increased her lead. So in July, when Biden was running against Donald Trump, it was a tie nationally, right, 46% to Trump's 46%. Now with Harris in the race, she's coming in at 49%, [00:01:35] while Trump is coming in at 45%. And, you know, other polls have shown that she's doing really well. She's certainly doing better than Biden was doing. And so this is a far more competitive race for Donald Trump, with Kamala Harris running against him as opposed to Biden running against him. [00:01:52] It was very clear that Trump was going to beat Biden. Now, this is a much more difficult race for Donald Trump to win. Remember, Kamala Harris also has a six point lead among likely voters. Harris came in at 51%, while Trump came in at 45%. [00:02:10] And that's according to an ABC News Washington Post Ipsos poll. And so J.D. Vance looks at all of this. He's asked about it, and he says it's fake news. Let's take a look. Washington Post, ABC. They're giving the vice president nationally a 4 to 5 point lead [00:02:26] over I mean, those are new numbers. So if you think the momentum is not swinging or your internal polls are suggesting differently, every other poll that's been released has shown great momentum in her direction. You know, Shannon, I think there are a lot of polls that actually show [00:02:42] her stagnating and leveling off. Of course, ABC Washington Post was a wildly inaccurate pollster in the summer of 2020. And look, if you see the numbers that we're seeing and you actually talk to the American people, I feel extremely confident that we're going to be in the right place come November. [00:02:58] We can't worry about polls. We have to run through the finish line and encourage everybody to get out there and vote. But our message is going to be very simple. If you want to get back to the peace and prosperity, the rising, take home pay. Donald Trump delivered it once and he can do it again. If you want to double down on the failed policies that have delivered higher [00:03:15] food prices and higher housing prices. While Kamala Harris has been vice president for three and a half years, and I guarantee she's going to make the problem worse if the American people give her a promotion. So, Jake, before I go to you, I want to at least give a caveat [00:03:31] and be fair to Vance, because, you know, when you look at previous elections where Donald Trump ran, the polling did make it appear as though his opponent had a giant lead over him. And obviously in 2016, it was a bit of an issue in 22. [00:03:48] Even in 2020, the polling suggested that Biden had a far larger lead. And then when the election happened, you saw that wasn't actually the case, even though he did win. So the ABC Washington Post poll showed Biden leading Trump by double digits throughout the summer of 2020 and up by 12 points [00:04:07] just three weeks before Election Day. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points. Those polling fumbles have rocked public confidence in pre-election data. Axios Ivana Saric reported. So, you know, if you want to point to that, I think [00:04:23] that there is some merit to that argument. But I also think that there's a little bit of hope taking place considering the fact that now you have a Republican ticket that was caught flat footed by, you know, Kamala Harris now being the Democratic nominee. [00:04:38] - Yeah. - So I have a lot to say about this. So first of all, so you went from tied to in one of those polls to up for or down for. So you think a four point move is some sort of fake news or fake polling? Well, then why wouldn't they move it 12 points? [00:04:53] Why would they only move it a tiny four points? Now that four points could make all the difference. But like, what's the point? And did it not occur to you that having a different candidate might lead to a different result? Of course. For example, did I tell you guys often is that on Election Day in 2016, [00:05:10] Bernie Sanders had a 12 point lead on Trump and Hillary Clinton. By the way, the polls weren't that wrong. She had about a three point lead. And because of the Electoral college, the three point lead isn't good enough. And so a lot of people are surprised and think, like, all the polls suck because they think, well, I mean, Hillary Clinton was supposed to win, but she didn't. [00:05:28] But the main reason she didn't win is because of the Electoral College, right? She won the popular vote by over 3 million votes. So the polling wasn't that far off at all in the case of Hillary Clinton. And by the way, if you were doing like I think that their conspiracy theory is, [00:05:44] oh, they're going to fake the polls, they're going to make it look like a big lead, so that when they cheat and they bring in the mules and the Kraken, And then it won't seem so crazy. Well, if that's true, why were they showing such terrible polling for Biden? And if they. If that was true, why did they show positive polling [00:06:01] for Hillary and then she lost. Yeah. So where's the genius conspiracy theory in that? Look, guys, none of this makes any sense at all. And and and remember, just a minute ago, you remember that rally we showed you where Trump was, like, the polls are fake in 2020, the polls. [00:06:18] And he's like, but now that I'm leading, I think the polls are real. I mean, of course, as usual polls, they're beautiful polls. As usual with Trump. He just said it right. So whenever they're down, they cry, cry, whine, whine, whine and set up conspiracy theories which are just an excuse for when they lose whenever they're up. [00:06:34] Oh, the polls are great. So just utter horse crap. - Totally ridiculous. - So yeah, I think you're right. I mean, I think the notion that it's like the media is putting out intentionally fake polls in order to manipulate the election. [00:06:50] That obviously goes way too far. I don't I don't believe that at all. If you want to make an argument that, you know, there there's some flaws in the polling and Kamala Harris's lead isn't as large as, you know, these polls would suggest. Okay, then make that argument. But going the extra mile to get conspiratorial and and allege ill intent. [00:07:10] Right. And manipulation. Guys, look, I get frustrated when the polling is wrong because I thought Biden would win comfortably based on the polling, and he didn't. Right. Again, that. So wait, how is that a conspiracy? He was supposed to win by a lot more. Instead, it became a nail biter and he almost lost. [00:07:26] Just the conspiracy part. Keep going Republicans, because you sound ridiculous. There's also the other issue of voters feeling overly confident and feeling like, because remember, it takes time, energy, resources to show up and vote. And so if you believe, based on the polling, [00:07:45] that your candidate has a comfortable lead and your vote really doesn't matter. You don't need to show up. I mean, that could have a negative impact on. By the way. I'm like, that's my, the the thing that I talk about a lot and it drives me crazy [00:08:00] that no one acknowledges this. One of the biggest problems that Hillary Clinton had, one of the biggest mistakes she made, was she kept saying, I'm going to win. I'm definitely going to win. I'm definitely going to win. And Morning Show actually confirmed this, that if anyone on television ever said that she might not win, that her team would call and yell [00:08:17] at the reporters and the anchors, etc.. How dare you say that? That is so monumentally dumb. Because if you tell everybody, hey, don't worry about it, I'm going to win anyway. They don't show up. Right. So it's a terrible strategy. So now back to this present day situation. One last thing on it. [00:08:35] So if the polls are fake and you actually have the lead, then what are you worried about? Yeah. True. Right. And so and by the way, sometimes the polls are off and this is what happens to Trump a decent amount, because guys like him drive unlikely voters, and the polls sometimes are [00:08:53] not good at picking up unlikely voters. They usually test for likely voters, people who voted before. And sometimes Trump does a good job of bringing out the unlikely voters. That's why he beats the polling. But if you think the polling is fake and that your lead is much larger, then you're in great shape because your own team, [00:09:10] your own voters are going to think, oh my God, it's panic time, I got to go vote. But meanwhile, you apparently have the lead, so I don't know what you're worried about. If the polling is fake, the only reason you'd be worried is if the polling is real and you know it's real, and that's why you're panicked. [00:09:26] Thanks for watching the video, guys. We also love it if you hit the join button below, because that makes you a member. And members allow us to be independent, honest. We can be as progressive as we want, no corporate media influence. And that's all because of you guys. We love doing the show with our members. Hit the join button. Become one of the Young Turks.